Non-household environments make a major contribution to dengue transmission: Implications for vector control.

Aedes-borne pathogens have been increasing in incidence in recent decades despite vector control activities implemented in endemic settings. Vector control for Aedes-transmitted arboviruses typically focuses on households because vectors breed in household containers and bite indoors. Yet, our recent work shows a high abundance of Aedes spp. vectors in public spaces. To investigate the impact of non-household environments on dengue transmission and control, we used field data on the number of water containers and abundance of Aedes mosquitoes in Household (HH) and Non-Household (NH) environments in two Kenyan cities, Kisumu and Ukunda, from 2019-2022. Incorporating information on human activity space, we developed an agent-based model to simulate city-wide conditions considering HH and five types of NH environments in which people move and interact with other humans and vectors during peak biting times. We additionally evaluated the outcome of vector control activities implemented in different environments in preventive (before an epidemic) and reactive (after an epidemic commences) scenarios. We estimated that over half of infections take place in NH environments, where the main spaces for transmission are workplaces, markets, and recreational locations. Accordingly, results highlight the important role of vector control activities at NH locations to reduce dengue. A greater reduction of cases is expected as control activities are implemented earlier, at higher levels of coverage, with greater effectiveness when targeting only NH as opposed to when targeting only HH. Further, local ecological factors such as the differential abundance of water containers within cities are also influential factors to consider for control. This work provides insight into the importance of vector control in both household and non-household environments in endemic settings. It highlights a specific approach to inform evidence-based decision making to target limited vector control resources for optimal control.

The Importance of Including Non-Household Environments in Dengue Vector Control Activities.

Most vector control activities in urban areas are focused on household environments; however, information relating to infection risks in spaces other than households is poor, and the relative risk that these spaces represent has not yet been fully understood. We used data-driven simulations to investigate the importance of household and non-household environments for dengue entomological risk in two Kenyan cities where dengue circulation has been reported. Fieldwork was performed using four strategies that targeted different stages of mosquitoes: ovitraps, larval collections, Prokopack aspiration, and BG-sentinel traps. Data were analyzed separately between household and non-household environments to assess mosquito presence, the number of vectors collected, and the risk factors for vector presence. With these data, we simulated vector and human populations to estimate the parameter m and mosquito-to-human density in both household and non-household environments. Among the analyzed variables, the main difference was found in mosquito abundance, which was consistently higher in non-household environments in Kisumu but was similar in Ukunda. Risk factor analysis suggests that small, clean water-related containers serve as mosquito breeding places in households as opposed to the trash- and rainfall-related containers found in non-household structures. We found that the density of vectors (m) was higher in non-household than household environments in Kisumu and was also similar or slightly lower between both environments in Ukunda. These results suggest that because vectors are abundant, there is a potential risk of transmission in non-household environments; hence, vector control activities should take these spaces into account.

Detection of acute dengue virus infection, with and without concurrent malaria infection, in a cohort of febrile children in Kenya, 2014-2019, by clinicians or machine learning algorithms.

Poor access to diagnostic testing in resource limited settings restricts surveillance for emerging infections, such as dengue virus (DENV), to clinician suspicion, based on history and exam observations alone. We investigated the ability of machine learning to detect DENV based solely on data available at the clinic visit. We extracted symptom and physical exam data from 6,208 pediatric febrile illness visits to Kenyan public health clinics from 2014-2019 and created a dataset with 113 clinical features. Malaria testing was available at the clinic site. DENV testing was performed afterwards. We randomly sampled 70% of the dataset to develop DENV and malaria prediction models using boosted logistic regression, decision trees and random forests, support vector machines, naïve Bayes, and neural networks with 10-fold cross validation, tuned to maximize accuracy. 30% of the dataset was reserved to validate the models. 485 subjects (7.8%) had DENV, and 3,145 subjects (50.7%) had malaria. 220 (3.5%) subjects had co-infection with both DENV and malaria. In the validation dataset, clinician accuracy for diagnosis of malaria was high (82% accuracy, 85% sensitivity, 80% specificity). Accuracy of the models for predicting malaria diagnosis ranged from 53-69% (35-94% sensitivity, 11-80% specificity). In contrast, clinicians detected only 21 of 145 cases of DENV (80% accuracy, 14% sensitivity, 85% specificity). Of the six models, only logistic regression identified any DENV case (8 cases, 91% accuracy, 5.5% sensitivity, 98% specificity). Without diagnostic testing, interpretation of clinical findings by humans or machines cannot detect DENV at 8% prevalence. Access to point-of-care diagnostic tests must be prioritized to address global inequities in emerging infections surveillance.

Oviposition Preferences of Aedes aegypti in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya.

Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of dengue fever virus (DENV) worldwide. Infusions made from organic materials have been shown to act as oviposition attractants for Ae. aegypti; however, studies on locally suitable infusion materials are lacking. The current study assessed the suitability of 4 locally available materials as oviposition infusions for use in surveillance and control of Ae. aegypti in Kwale County, Kenya. Oviposition infusion preferences were assessed in laboratory, semifield, and field conditions, using 4 infusions made from banana, grass, neem, and coconut. In addition, ovitrapping in wall, grass, bush, and banana microhabitats was done in 10 houses each in urban and rural coastal households to determine suitable oviposition microhabitats. Overall, the highest oviposition responses were observed for banana infusion, followed by neem and grass infusions, which were comparable. Coconut infusion resulted in the lowest oviposition response. Although female Ae. aegypti did not show preference for any microhabitat, the oviposition activity across all the microhabitats was highly enhanced by use of the organic infusions. Banana, neem, and grass infusions could be used to attract gravid mosquitoes to oviposition sites laced with insecticide to kill eggs. Additionally, banana plantings could be important targets for integrated vector control programs.

Pupal productivity of larval habitats of Aedes aegypti in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya.

Aedes aegypti is an important vector of several arboviruses including dengue and chikungunya viruses. Accurate identification of larval habitats of Ae. aegypti is considered an essential step in targeted control. This study determined Ae. aegypti productivity in selected larval habitats in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya. Three sequential larval habitat surveys were conducted. The first survey was habitat census (baseline) through which 83 representative larval habitats were identified and selected. The second and third surveys involved estimating daily productivity of the 83 selected larval habitats for 30 consecutive days during a wet and a dry season, respectively. Of 664 larval habitats examined at baseline, 144 larval habitats (21.7%) were found to be infested with Ae. aegypti larvae. At baseline, majority (71%) of the pupae were collected from two (2/6) larval habitat types, tires and pots. Multivariate analysis identified habitat type and the habitat being movable as the predictors for pupal abundance. During the 30-day daily pupal production surveys, only a few of the habitats harbored pupae persistently. Pupae were found in 28% and 12% of the larval habitats during the wet and dry seasons, respectively. In the wet season, drums, tires, and pots were identified as the key habitat types accounting for 85% of all pupae sampled. Three habitats (all drums) accounted for 80% of all the pupae collected in the dry season. Predictors for pupal productivity in the wet season were habitat type, place (whether the habitat is located at the back or front of the house), habitat purpose (use of the water in the habitat), and source of water. Although the multivariate model for habitat type did not converge, habitat type and habitat size were the only significant predictors during the dry season. Drums, pots, and tires were sources of more than 85% of Ae. aegypti pupae, reinforcing the "key container concept." Targeting these three types of habitats makes epidemiological sense, especially during the dry season.

Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents.

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28-85% for vectors, 44-88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

No Evidence of O'nyong-nyong Viremia among Children with Febrile Illness in Kenya (2015-2018).

O'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) is a little-known arbovirus causing intermittent, yet explosive, outbreaks in Africa. It is closely related to chikungunya virus, an emerging infectious disease. O'nyong-nyong virus causes a self-limited illness characterized by bilateral polyarthritis, rash, low-grade fever, and lymphadenopathy. In 1959, an extensive outbreak of ONNV occurred in East Africa, and decades later, another large outbreak was documented in Uganda in 1996. Limited evidence for interepidemic transmission is available, although serologic studies indicate a high prevalence of exposure. 1,045 febrile child participants in western and coastal Kenya were tested for the presence of ONNV using a multiplexed real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR assay. More than half of the participants had malaria parasitemia, and there was no evidence of active ONNV viremia in these participants. Further work is required to better understand the interepidemic circulation of ONNV and to reconcile evidence of high serologic exposure to ONNV among individuals in East Africa.

High Dengue Burden and Circulation of 4 Virus Serotypes among Children with Undifferentiated Fever, Kenya, 2014-2017.

Little is known about the extent and serotypes of dengue viruses circulating in Africa. We evaluated the presence of dengue viremia during 4 years of surveillance (2014-2017) among children with febrile illness in Kenya. Acutely ill febrile children were recruited from 4 clinical sites in western and coastal Kenya, and 1,022 participant samples were tested by using a highly sensitive real-time reverse transcription PCR. A complete case analysis with genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analyses was conducted to characterize the presence of dengue viremia among participants during 2014-2017. Dengue viremia was detected in 41.9% (361/862) of outpatient children who had undifferentiated febrile illness in Kenya. Of children with confirmed dengue viremia, 51.5% (150/291) had malaria parasitemia. All 4 dengue virus serotypes were detected, and phylogenetic analyses showed several viruses from novel lineages. Our results suggests high levels of dengue virus infection among children with undifferentiated febrile illness in Kenya.

Evidence of transovarial transmission of Chikungunya and Dengue viruses in field-caught mosquitoes in Kenya.

Arboviruses are among the most important emerging pathogens due to their increasing public health impact. In Kenya, continued population growth and associated urbanization are conducive to vector spread in both urban and rural environments, yet mechanisms of viral amplification in vector populations is often overlooked when assessing risks for outbreaks. Thus, the characterization of local arbovirus circulation in mosquito populations is imperative to better inform risk assessments and vector control practices. Aedes species mosquitoes were captured at varying stages of their life cycle during different seasons between January 2014 and May 2016 at four distinct sites in Kenya, and tested for chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses by RT-PCR. CHIKV was detected in 45 (5.9%) and DENV in 3 (0.4%) mosquito pools. No ZIKV was detected. Significant regional variation in prevalence was observed, with greater frequency of CHIKV on the coast. DENV was detected exclusively on the coast. Both viruses were detected in immature mosquitoes of both sexes, providing evidence of transovarial transmission of these arboviruses in local mosquitoes. This phenomenon may be driving underlying viral maintenance that may largely contribute to periodic re-emergence among humans in Kenya.

Malaria smear positivity among Kenyan children peaks at intermediate temperatures as predicted by ecological models.

BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission and suitability, affecting the life-cycle of the Plasmodium parasite and Anopheles vector. Early models predicted a thermal malaria transmission optimum of 31 °C, later revised to 25 °C using experimental data from mosquito and parasite biology. However, the link between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence remains poorly resolved. METHODS: To evaluate the relationship between ambient temperature and malaria risk, 5833 febrile children (<18 years-old) with an acute, non-localizing febrile illness were enrolled from four heterogenous outpatient clinic sites in Kenya (Chulaimbo, Kisumu, Msambweni and Ukunda). Thick and thin blood smears were evaluated for the presence of malaria parasites. Daily temperature estimates were obtained from land logger data, and rainfall from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Africa Rainfall Climatology (ARC) data. Thirty-day mean temperature and 30-day cumulative rainfall were estimated and each lagged by 30 days, relative to the febrile visit. A generalized linear mixed model was used to assess relationships between malaria smear positivity and predictors including temperature, rainfall, age, sex, mosquito exposure and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Malaria smear positivity varied between 42-83% across four clinic sites in western and coastal Kenya, with highest smear positivity in the rural, western site. The temperature ranges were cooler in the western sites and warmer in the coastal sites. In multivariate analysis controlling for socioeconomic status, age, sex, rainfall and bednet use, malaria smear positivity peaked near 25 °C at all four sites, as predicted a priori from an ecological model. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides direct field evidence of a unimodal relationship between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence with a peak in malaria transmission occurring at lower temperatures than previously recognized clinically. This nonlinear relationship with an intermediate optimal temperature implies that future climate warming could expand malaria incidence in cooler, highland regions while decreasing incidence in already warm regions with average temperatures above 25 °C. These findings support efforts to further understand the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and vector-borne diseases to better allocate resources and respond to disease threats in a future, warmer world.

Acute Flavivirus and Alphavirus Infections among Children in Two Different Areas of Kenya, 2015.

Alphaviruses and flaviviruses are known to be endemic in Eastern Africa, but few data are available to evaluate the prevalence of these infections. This leads to missed opportunities for prevention against future outbreaks. This cohort study investigated the frequency of alphavirus and flavivirus incident infections in two regions of Kenya and identified potential risk factors. Seroconversions for alphavirus and flavivirus infections were identified by immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (IgG-ELISA) in a cohort of 1,604 acutely ill children over the year 2015. The annual incidence was 0.5% (0.2-1.2%) for alphaviruses and 1.2% (0.7-2.2%) for flaviviruses. Overall, seroprevalence was significantly higher for alphaviruses in western Kenya than on the coast (P = 0.014), whereas flavivirus seroprevalence was higher on the coast (P = 0.044). Poverty indicators did not emerge as risk factors, but reliance on household water storage was associated with increased exposure to both alphaviruses and flaviviruses (odds ratio = 2.3).

Unrecognized Dengue Virus Infections in Children, Western Kenya, 2014-2015.

We detected a cluster of dengue virus infections in children in Kenya during July 2014-June 2015. Most cases were serotype 1, but we detected all 4 serotypes, including co-infections with 2 serotypes. Our findings implicate dengue as a cause of febrile illness in this population and highlight a need for robust arbovirus surveillance.

Characterization and productivity profiles of Aedes aegypti (L.) breeding habitats across rural and urban landscapes in western and coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the principal vector for dengue and other emerging arboviruses, breeds preferentially in various man-made and natural container habitats. In the absence of vaccine, epidemiological surveillance and vector control remain the best practices for preventing dengue outbreaks. Effective vector control depends on a good understanding of larval and adult vector ecology of which little is known in Kenya. In the current study, we sought to characterize breeding habitats and establish container productivity profiles of Ae. aegypti in rural and urban sites in western and coastal Kenya. METHODS: Twenty sentinel houses in each of four study sites (in western and coastal Kenya) were assessed for immature mosquito infestation once a month for a period of 24 months (June 2014 to May 2016). All water-holding containers in and around the households were inspected for Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae. RESULTS: Collections were made from a total of 22,144 container visits: Chulaimbo (7575) and Kisumu (8003) in the west, and from Msambweni (3199) and Ukunda (3367) on the coast. Of these, only 4-5.6% were positive for Ae. aegypti immatures. In all four sites, significantly more positive containers were located outdoors than indoors. A total of 17,537 Ae. aegypti immatures were sampled from 10 container types. The most important habitat types were buckets, drums, tires, and pots, which produced over 75% of all the pupae. Key outdoor containers in the coast were buckets, drums and tires, which accounted for 82% of the pupae, while pots and tires were the only key containers in the western region producing 70% of the pupae. Drums, buckets and pots were the key indoor containers, producing nearly all of the pupae in the coastal sites. No pupae were collected indoors in the western region. The coastal region produced significantly more Ae. aegypti immatures than the western region both inside and outside the sentinel houses. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that productive Ae. aegypti larval habitats are abundant outdoors and that only a few containers produce a majority of the pupae. Although the numbers were lower, productive habitats were detected within households. Targeting source reduction efforts towards these productive containers both inside and outside homes is likely to be a cost-effective way to reduce arboviral transmission in these regions.

Malaria vectors and their blood-meal sources in an area of high bed net ownership in the western Kenya highlands.

BACKGROUND: Blood-meal sources of malaria vectors affect their capacity to transmit the disease. Most efficient malaria vectors prefer human hosts. However, with increasing personal protection measures it becomes more difficult for them to find human hosts. Here recent malaria vector blood-meal sources in western Kenya highlands were investigated. METHODS: Adult mosquitoes resting indoors, outdoors and exiting through windows were collected in three study areas within the western Kenya highlands from June 2011 to June 2013. A census of people, livestock and of insecticide-treated nets was done per house. Mosquito blood-meal sources were determined as human, goat, bovine or chicken using enzyme-linked-immunosorbent assays. RESULTS: Most (86.3 %) households possessed at least one bed net, 57.2 % had domesticated animals and 83.6 % had people sharing houses with livestock at night. Most (94.9 %) unfed malaria vectors were caught exiting through windows. Overall, 53.1 % of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto obtained blood-meals from humans, 26.5 % from goats and 18.4 % from bovines. Single blood-meal sources by An. gambiae s.s. from humans were 26.5 %, 8.2 % from bovines and 2.0 % from goats. Mixed blood-meal sources by An. gambiae s.s. identified included: 24.5 % human/goat, 10.2 % human/bovine, 8.2 % human/bovine/goat and also 8.2 % bovine/goat. One An. arabiensis mosquito obtained blood-meal only from humans. CONCLUSION: An unusually high frequency of animal and mixed human-animal blood meals in the major malaria vector An. gambiae s.s. was revealed in the western Kenya highlands where bed net coverage is above the WHO target. The shift in blood-meal sources from humans to livestock is most likely the vectors' response to increased bed net coverage and the close location of livestock frequently in the same house as people at night. Livestock-targeted interventions should be considered under these circumstances to address residual malaria transmission.

Physical, chemical and biological characteristics in habitats of high and low presence of anopheline larvae in western Kenya highlands.

BACKGROUND: Characteristics of aquatic habitats determine whether mosquitoes will oviposit, hatch, develop, pupate and successfully emerge into adults or not, thus influencing which mosquito species will occupy a habitat. This study determined whether physiochemical and biological characteristics differ between habitats with high and low presence of anopheline larvae. METHODS: Physical, chemical and biological characteristics were evaluated in selected habitats twice per month within three highland valleys in western Kenya. Aquatic macro-organisms were sampled using a sweep-net. Colorimetric methods were used to determine levels of iron, phosphate, nitrate, ammonium and nitrite in water samples. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) was used to compare parameters between the two categories of anopheline presence. RESULTS: Habitats with high anopheline presence had greater abundance of mosquito aquatic stages and tadpoles and two times more levels of nitrate in water, whereas habitats with low anopheline presence had wider biofilm cover and higher levels of iron in water. CONCLUSION: Habitats of high and low presence of anopheline larvae, which differed in a number of physical, chemical and biological characteristics, were identified in valleys within western Kenya highlands. Differences in habitat characteristics are critical in determining the number of anopheline larvae that will fully develop and emerge into adults.

Productivity of malaria vectors from different habitat types in the western Kenya highlands.

BACKGROUND: Mosquito Larval Source Management (LSM) could be a valuable additional tool for integrated malaria vector control especially in areas with focal transmission like the highlands of western Kenya if it were not for the need to target all potential habitats at frequent intervals. The ability to determine the productivity of malaria vectors from identified habitats might be used to target LSM only at productive ones. METHODS: Each aquatic habitat within three highland sites in western Kenya was classified as natural swamp, cultivated swamp, river fringe, puddle, open drain or burrow pit. Three habitats of each type were selected in each site in order to study the weekly productivity of adult malaria vectors from February to May 2009 using a sweep-net and their habitat characteristics recorded. RESULTS: All surveyed habitat types produced adult malaria vectors. Mean adult productivity of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato in puddles (1.8/m(2)) was 11-900 times higher than in the other habitat types. However, puddles were the most unstable habitats having water at 43% of all sampling occasions and accounted for 5% of all habitats mapped in the study areas whereas open drains accounted for 72%. Densities of anopheline late instars larvae significantly increased with the presence of a biofilm but decreased with increasing surface area or when water was flowing. Taking stability and frequency of the habitat into account, puddles were still the most productive habitat types for malaria vectors but closely followed by open drains. CONCLUSION: Even though productivity of An. gambiae s.l. was greatest in small and unstable habitats, estimation of their overall productivity in an area needs to consider the more stable habitats over time and their surface extension. Therefore, targeting only the highly productive habitats is unlikely to provide sufficient reduction in malaria vector densities.

Topography and malaria transmission heterogeneity in western Kenya highlands: prospects for focal vector control.

BACKGROUND: Recent resurgence of malaria in the highlands of Western Kenya has called for a more comprehensive understanding of the previously neglected complex highland vector ecology. Besides other drivers of malaria epidemiology, topography is likely to have a major effect on spatial vector and parasite distribution. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of topography on malaria spatial vector distribution and parasite prevalence. METHODOLOGY: Indoor resting adult malaria vectors and blood parasites were collected in three villages along a 4 km transect originating from the valley bottom and ending at the hilltop for 13 months. Members of the Anopheles gambiae complex were identified by PCR. Blood parasites were collected from children 6-13 years old and densities categorized by site of home location and age of the children. RESULTS: Ninety eight percent (98%) of An. gambiae s.s. and (99%) Anopheles funestus were collected in houses located at the edge of the valley bottom, whereas 1% of An. gambiae s.s. were collected at mid hill and at the hilltop respectively. No An. funestus were collected at the hilltop. Malaria prevalence was 68% at the valley bottom, 40.2% at mid hill and 26.7% at the hilltop. Children aged six years and living at the edge of the valley bottom had an annual geometric mean number of 66.1 trophozoites for every 200 white blood cells, while those living at mid-hill had a mean of 84.8, and those living at hilltop had 199.5 trophozoites. CONCLUSION: Malaria transmission in this area is mainly confined to the valley bottom. Effective vector control could be targeted at the foci. However, the few vectors observed at mid-hill maintained a relatively high prevalence rate. The higher variability in blood parasite densities and their low correlation with age in children living at the hilltop suggests a lower stability of transmission than at the mid-hill and valley bottom.

Increased density of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 coreceptors CCR5 and CXCR4 on the surfaces of CD4(+) T cells and monocytes of patients with Schistosoma mansoni infection.

Distribution of chemokine receptors CCR5 and CXCR4, which are also coreceptors for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 invasion of cells, was measured on the surfaces of CD4(+) T cells and monocytes in peripheral blood samples from a group of Kenyan car washers. Patients with active schistosomiasis displayed higher cell surface densities of these receptors than did cured schistosomiasis patients.